BTC/USD H4 Technical Analysis: A Bearish Perspective

Bitcoin’s Bearish Outlook Amid Stronger US Dollar Sentiment

The BTCUSD cryptocurrency pair represents the exchange rate between Bitcoin (BTC) and the U.S. dollar (USD). The pair’s movements are influenced by macroeconomic factors, including the strength of the USD, regulatory developments, and overall risk sentiment in the financial markets. Currently, traders are closely monitoring the US CB Consumer Confidence report, a critical indicator of economic confidence. A stronger-than-expected result could reinforce USD strength, amplifying bearish pressure on BTCUSD. Additionally, anticipation surrounding the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting adds caution to the market, with the potential for higher interest rates and persistent inflation concerns weighing on risk assets like Bitcoin.
For BTC, adoption trends and regulatory changes remain pivotal in shaping long-term trends, though short-term price movements may hinge on USD performance and broader market sentiment.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The H4 chart of BTC/USD reveals a strong bearish trend, with the price trading below the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating persistent downward momentum. A series of consecutive bearish candles, interspersed with minor bullish corrections, highlights sustained selling pressure. The pair recently broke through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, confirming bearish dominance, and is now testing the 38.2% retracement level as a critical support zone.
The Ichimoku Cloud analysis shows that BTC/USD has decisively moved below the cloud, confirming bearish sentiment. The lagging span remains below the price action, and the cloud ahead is red, suggesting further downside unless the price reclaims levels above the cloud. Trading volumes indicate increased activity during bearish movements, reflecting strong selling pressure, while lower volumes during bullish corrections suggest weak buying interest. The MACD line remains below the signal line with a deepening bearish histogram, signaling that bearish momentum is strengthening with no immediate signs of reversal.
The current support level is at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $92,829.72, and a further decline could lead to a test of the 50.0% retracement level around $87,014.05, which is a critical zone for potential buyers. On the upside, immediate resistance is located at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $98,645.35, and a recovery beyond this point could reduce bearish pressure. A stronger resistance lies near $102,522.45, aligning with the upper boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud and prior support levels.

DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.