Gold Price Action Forecast: Deep Corrections and Buy Zones
The fundamental outlook for gold remains decidedly bullish as the US government shutdown continues to inject significant uncertainty into the global financial landscape. With the Census Bureau delaying the release of critical Durable Goods Orders data by 33 days, traders are operating in a “data vacuum,” which traditionally enhances gold’s appeal as a premier safe-haven asset. This lack of visibility regarding manufacturing trends and production leads to a weaker US Dollar (USD) profile, as investors hedge against potential economic stagnation and policy opacity. While a strong Durable Goods report (Actual > Forecast) would typically bolster the dollar and pressure gold, the current reporting delay and the broader fiscal instability have cemented a floor for prices, as the market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may lean toward a more dovish stance to combat the shutdown’s economic drag.
Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
On the Gold H4 chart, the prevailing long-term uptrend remains firmly intact, characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows. Recent price action shows the market is undergoing a series of shallow corrections, though the current structure allows for a potentially deeper retracement toward previous low-level zones to collect liquidity before the next bullish leg. Technically, the EMA (9) is currently positioned below the price candles, acting as a dynamic support level that confirms the short-term strength of the buyers. However, the Stochastic (14, 1, 3) oscillator is reflecting an extremely overbought condition with readings of 96.44 and 94.79, suggesting that a temporary price action pullback is imminent. Meanwhile, the MACD (12, 26, 9) remains supportive of the bullish momentum with a histogram value of 5.95 and signal lines trending upward at 74.39 and 68.45, reinforcing the strategy of “buying the dips” near established support zones.
•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.
