Aussie price action and fundamentals before IMF and NAB business reports
The Australian Dollar, often referred to as the “Aussie”, represents Australia’s currency and is one of the most actively traded pairs against the U.S. Dollar (USD) in the global forex market. The AUD-USD pair reflects the balance between Australia’s export-driven, commodity-linked economy and the U.S.’s global reserve currency. Today’s focus for the AUD USD pair centers around global and domestic monetary policy updates. On the Australian side, attention is on upcoming RBA meeting minutes and NAB Business Confidence data, both key indicators of business sentiment and future rate guidance. A stronger NAB print could support the Aussie, but with the IMF meetings in Washington DC also on the agenda, global risk sentiment and commodity performance may dominate short-term direction. Meanwhile, from the U.S., multiple Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, are scheduled to speak, and any hawkish tone hinting at persistent inflationary pressure could strengthen the USD. As traders await these statements, market volatility is expected to rise, with the USD likely gaining near-term support on stronger policy rhetoric while the AUD remains under pressure due to slower domestic business growth and cautious RBA outlook.
Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The AUD/USD 4-hour chart shows the price moving in a bearish trend with a 23° downward slope as indicated by the trend angle tool. The AUD-USD pair is trading between the 0.236 and 0.382 Fibonacci retracement levels, where 0.236 has acted as a key support zone. After testing this level, the Aussie price experienced a corrective bounce and is now moving toward the 0.382 Fibonacci resistance, remaining below the Ichimoku Cloud. The Ichimoku baseline and Leading Span B (red line) are positioned above Leading Span A (green line), forming a bearish Kumo (red cloud) with its upper boundary flattening, signaling potential consolidation before another drop. The candlestick is currently hovering near the conversion line, showing short-term indecision, while the %R (14) indicator stands at -53.82, suggesting a neutral-to-bearish momentum, indicating possible short-term correction before continuation of the downward trend. Overall, the bearish sentiment remains dominant unless the AUD USD price breaks decisively above the descending trendline and the Ichimoku cloud resistance area.
•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.
