BTCUSD: Bearish Trend Meets Bullish Channel
BTC/USD, commonly referred to as “Bitcoin,” is one of the most actively traded cryptocurrency pairs in the forex and cryptocurrency markets. Known for its volatility, Bitcoin attracts traders focusing on price action, fundamental factors, and daily technical analysis. Today’s fundamental outlook is particularly influenced by significant upcoming USD news events, including the Treasury International Capital (TIC) report, which reflects foreign investment flows into US securities, and speeches from FOMC members Jeffrey Schmid and Michael Barr, which may signal monetary policy shifts. Additionally, traders should closely watch initial jobless claims and housing sector data (building permits and housing starts), as these can heavily impact the strength of the USD, indirectly influencing BTC/USD movements. Generally, a more hawkish tone from FOMC speakers or positive economic indicators will strengthen the USD, potentially pressuring BTC/USD lower, whereas weaker US data could provide bullish support to Bitcoin.
Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the provided BTC/USD H4 chart reveals mixed signals. Although the overall longer-term trend remains bearish, recent price action has been trending upward within a bullish parallel channel. Currently, BTC/USD is navigating between the 0.786 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels, closely aligned with the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, which are tightening, signaling a potential upcoming breakout or strong price movement. The MACD histogram shows decreased momentum and possible convergence, indicating weakening bullish pressure, and the Volatility OHLC indicator suggests decreasing volatility. Traders should closely monitor these indicators, as tightened Bollinger Bands alongside decreasing volatility and MACD convergence often precede substantial price movements, making the next sessions critical for BTC/USD price action.
• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.
