AUDUSD H4 Technical Analysis and Price Action Forecast

Is AUDUSD Preparing for a Rebound or Further Drop

The AUD/USD forex pair, often referred to as the “Aussie,” is a major currency pair that represents the exchange rate between the Australian dollar (AUD) and the U.S. dollar (USD). It is heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors such as interest rate differentials, commodity prices, and overall risk sentiment in global markets. Today, the key fundamental focus will be on multiple economic events, including speeches from Federal Reserve officials and the release of U.S. new home sales data. The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s President, Thomas Barkin, and Atlanta’s Federal Reserve President, Raphael Bostic, are expected to address inflation, economic outlook, and housing trends. If their tone is more hawkish than expected, indicating potential rate hikes, the USD may strengthen, putting downward pressure on AUD/USD. Additionally, U.S. new home sales data is a leading indicator of economic health, with a stronger-than-expected reading likely to boost the dollar. On the Australian side, the Monthly CPI Indicator and Construction Work Done report will be significant. If inflation remains high, it could support the Aussie by raising expectations for RBA policy tightening. However, weaker construction figures may counterbalance this effect. Overall, fundamental sentiment today will be driven by inflation expectations and housing market trends, with a bias towards USD strength if hawkish signals emerge.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The H4 chart of AUD/USD shows that the price has broken below the ascending support trendline, signaling a shift in market sentiment. Currently, the price is testing a strong horizontal support zone, which aligns with the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. The presence of two consecutive green candlesticks indicates that this support zone is holding, and a potential short-term bullish correction could be underway. If the upward movement continues, the middle Bollinger Band (which represents the 20-period moving average) can serve as the first target. Beyond that, the previously broken trendline could act as a secondary resistance level. The Stochastic Oscillator is showing oversold conditions, with %K and %D lines crossing upwards, reinforcing the possibility of a bullish reversal. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 46, suggesting neutral momentum but with room for further upside. If RSI moves above 50, it would confirm bullish momentum. Overall, while the trend remains bearish in the short term due to the trendline break, price action indicates a potential rebound towards key resistance levels. A decisive break below the current support, however, could open the door for further downside movement.

DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.