USD/CAD: Economic Indicators and Trend Forecast

USDCAD: Technical Insights and Fundamental Drivers

The USD/CAD pair, often referred to as the “Loonie,” due to the loon depicted on the Canadian one-dollar coin, presents an interesting scenario on the chart. In this analysis, we explore the implications of recent economic data and upcoming events that could influence this currency pair.

usdcad h4 candelstick chart on 7-3-2024

   Chart Notes: 

  • Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
  • Candles’ time-frame is 4h.

The Loonie’s H4 chart shows a well-defined upward channel indicating a bullish trend in USD/CAD over the selected period. Recently, the price has tested the upper boundary of the channel and faced resistance, leading to a pullback towards the mid-line of the channel. This suggests a potential consolidation phase or a retracement before further upward movement. The resistance and support lines within the channel provide critical levels for traders to watch. If the price breaks above the current resistance, it could signal a continuation of the bullish trend, while a breach below the channel may indicate a reversal or stronger retracement.

Upcoming economic releases and events could be pivotal for the news analysis of USD/CAD. From the Canadian side, the International Merchandise Trade data is due on August 6, 2024. A positive report indicating more exports than imports could strengthen the CAD, potentially leading to a downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair if exports significantly exceed expectations. On the U.S. side, a series of influential data releases and public engagements by Federal Reserve officials, including the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, could impact the USD. His participation in a panel discussion on interest rates suggests that any hawkish signals might reinforce the USD’s strength. Similarly, upcoming employment data such as the ADP Employment Change and Initial Jobless Claims could further influence market sentiment and volatility in this currency pair. These factors combined will guide traders in shaping their strategies around the USD/CAD in the coming weeks.

• DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore Ltd”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.